Publications and Analyses

The latest publications and analyses from Open Nuclear Network

Can Humanity Achieve a Century of Nuclear Peace?

While the world has avoided large-scale nuclear war, questions remain about the role of chance versus policy choices in preventing such events. This study systematically assesses expert beliefs about the probability of a nuclear catastrophe by 2045, the centenary of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

October 29, 2024

Fissile Material and Nuclear Force Structure in North Korea

ONN Senior Analyst Sarah Laderman, Research Assistant Nikita Degtyarev, Analyst Tianran Xu, Research Assistant Elin Bergner and Research and Analysis Manager Marcy R Fowler authored a report "Fissile Material and Nuclear Force Structure in North Korea" for The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI), providing an in-depth analysis of North Korea's approach to its nuclear force structure.

October 01, 2024

DPRK Nuclear Weapons Development - Literature Review

There exists no recent comprehensive literature review related to the DPRK’s nuclear weapons development capabilities and associated strategy. This paper seeks to fill this gap by compiling and summarising all major published analyses released since 2017.

August 13, 2024

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Bridget Williams, Ezra Karger, Andreas Persbo, Kseniia Pirnavskaia, Karim Kamel, Victoria Schmidt, Otto Kuusela, Zach Jacobs, Philip E. Tetlock
October 29, 2024

Can Humanity Achieve a Century of Nuclear Peace?

Expert Forecasts of Nuclear Risk
While the world has avoided large-scale nuclear war, questions remain about the role of chance versus policy choices in preventing such events. This study systematically assesses expert beliefs about the probability of a nuclear catastrophe by 2045, the centenary of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nag...
Cover of ONN-FRI report
Sarah Laderman
Nikita Degtyarev
Tianran Xu
Elin Bergner
Marcy R Fowler
October 01, 2024

Fissile Material and Nuclear Force Structure in North Korea

ONN Senior Analyst Sarah Laderman, Research Assistant Nikita Degtyarev, Analyst Tianran Xu, Research Assistant Elin Bergner and Research and Analysis Manager Marcy R Fowler authored a report "Fissile Material and Nuclear Force Structure in North Korea" for The Royal United Services Institute for Def...
Fissile Material and Nuclear Force Structure in North Korea.jpg
Sarah Laderman
Elin Bergner
Marcy R. Fowler
August 13, 2024

DPRK Nuclear Weapons Development - Literature Review

There exists no recent comprehensive literature review related to the DPRK’s nuclear weapons development capabilities and associated strategy. This paper seeks to fill this gap by compiling and summarising all major published analyses released since 2017.
DPRK Nuclear Weapons Development - Literature Review
February 05, 2024

Event Horizon News Digest

Methodology and Scope Note
Event Horizon is a news digest focusing on monitoring emerging risks before they become visible crises. It examines developing stories with significant implications for global stability, stories that may breach critical thresholds beyond which escalation may become irreversible.
Event Horizon logo
Jaewoo Shin
Tianran Xu
Elin Bergner
January 04, 2024

Nuclear Risk Assessment Report - December 2023

Nuclear risk can emanate from various factors. These range from the more obvious military developments and incidents that could lead to increased tensions and possibly even nuclear misuse, to the often overlooked domestic and external contexts in which a country perceives its circumstances and, base...
December Report
Jaewoo Shin
Tianran Xu
Elin Bergner
December 07, 2023

Nuclear Risk Assessment Report - November 2023

Nuclear risk can emanate from various factors. These range from the more obvious military developments and incidents that could lead to increased tensions and possibly even nuclear misuse, to the often overlooked domestic and external contexts in which a country perceives its circumstances and, base...
November Report
November 09, 2023

Nuclear Risk Assessment Report - October 2023

Nuclear risk can emanate from various factors. These range from the more obvious military developments and incidents that could lead to increased tensions and possibly even nuclear misuse, to the often overlooked domestic and external contexts in which a country perceives its circumstances and, base...
October Report
Tianran Xu
Jaewoo Shin
Elin Bergner
October 09, 2023

Nuclear Risk Assessment Report - September 2023

Nuclear risk can emanate from various factors. These range from the more obvious military developments and incidents that could lead to increased tensions and possibly even nuclear misuse, to the often overlooked domestic and external contexts in which a country perceives its circumstances and, base...
Monthly Report September
Tianran Xu
Jaewoo Shin
Elin Bergner
September 12, 2023

Nuclear Risk Assessment Report - August 2023

In an attempt to more comprehensively assess nuclear risks on and around the Korean Peninsula, this monthly Report examines the DPRK’s and the ROK’s nuclear and military spheres, as well as activities and policy decisions across main domestic and foreign policy spheres that could impact nuclear risk...
Monthly report - August
Tianran Xu
Jaewoo Shin
Elin Bergner
August 10, 2023

Nuclear Risk Assessment Report - July 2023

In an attempt to more comprehensively assess nuclear risks on and around the Korean Peninsula, the Report examines the DPRK’s and the ROK’s nuclear and military spheres, as well as activities and policy decisions across main domestic and foreign policy spheres that could impact nuclear risks.
Cover page of the report
Tianran Xu
August 08, 2023

Brief on 27 July 2023 Parade of the DPRK

Strategic Delivery Vehicle Developments Series
To celebrate the 70th "Victory Day" (Korean War armistice) anniversary, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) staged a military parade on 27 July 2023, which was centered around the DPRK’s nuclear forces.
Parade 2023
Pavel Podvig
Eleanor Krabill
Vivienne Zhang
Eric Lepowsky
Manuel Kreutle
Christoph Wirz
Alexander Glaser
Jaewoo Shin
Veronika Bedenko
July 31, 2023

Menzingen Verification Experiment

Verifying the Absence of Nuclear Weapons in the Field
The Menzingen Verification Experiment conducted on 8 March 2023, was organized by UNIDIR in partnership with the Swiss Armed Forces, Spiez Laboratory, Princeton University’s Program on Science and Global Security, and ONN. This report describes the procedure and the key results of the experiment.
Menzingen Verification Experiment
Tianran Xu
Jaewoo Shin
Elin Bergner
July 12, 2023

Nuclear Risk Assessment Report - June 2023

In an attempt to more comprehensively assess nuclear risks on and around the Korean Peninsula, this monthly Report examines the DPRK’s and the ROK’s nuclear and military spheres, as well as activities and policy decisions across main domestic and foreign policy spheres that could impact nuclear risk...
Monthly Report June
Tianran Xu
June 29, 2023

Size Estimates of DPRK's Nuclear Devices

The DPRK nuclear warheads showcased before 2023 have a maximum diameter of around 600 mm and were likely intended to be delivered by ballistic missiles. The Hwasan-31 nuclear warhead, newly revealed in late March 2023, has a reduced diameter of around 460 mm, suggesting advances in miniaturization. ...
Using the 600 mm multiple rocket launcher round as reference, the face length of both Kim Jong Un and Hong Sung Mu have been measured for later use
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