Reducing nuclear risk
The updated European Union (EU) Indo–Pacific Strategy highlights the growing strategic importance of the region for the EU’s foreign policy goals, incorporating both traditional security matters and non-traditional security (NTS) concerns. However, the strategy falls short by siloing policy implementation and not addressing the significant nuclear escalation risks among the region’s nuclear-armed states, which could have severe global consequences, including for Europe.
From 7 October to 8 November 2024, Open Nuclear Network (ONN) participated in the 79th session of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) First Committee on Disarmament and International Security in New York, the United States.
While the world has avoided large-scale nuclear war, questions remain about the role of chance versus policy choices in preventing such events. This study systematically assesses expert beliefs about the probability of a nuclear catastrophe by 2045, the centenary of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.