Open-Source Assessments of DPRK’s Nuclear Programme

The Verification Research, Training and Information Centre (VERTIC), the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) and the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), with funding from Global Affairs Canada, conducted a multi-year project to assess the weapons of mass destruction programme in the DPRK. In the initial phase, VERTIC and CNS modelled the nuclear fuel cycle, from uranium mining to weapons-grade material production. The Open Nuclear Network (ONN), a PAX sapiens programme, assessed strategies the DPRK could be employing for its nuclear force structure based on both defence needs and fissile material constraints, derived from outputs of the VERTIC NFC model.

In the second phase, the project consortium shifted focus to the future of the DPRK’s nuclear programme, extending its research methodology to forecast developments from 2024 to 2034, including cumulative fissile material estimates for the next decade. VERTIC and ONN completed open-source assessments of the DPRK’s nuclear capabilities, namely on uranium enrichment; operation of the Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR) at Yongbyon; and weaponisation facilities and capabilities.

The full project research findings can be found here: https://arcg.is/1aKuDq3.

ONN’s specific contributions are highlighted below. More analysis from this project will be finalised and published in the coming weeks so keep an eye on our website!

StoryMaps: High-Explosives Testing in the DPRK and Comparative Analyses to Nuclear-Armed States

As part of the multi-year project, Open-Source Assessments of the DPRK’s Nuclear Programme, we are releasing a suite of interactive maps and deep-dive analyses into the DPRK’s high-explosive testing infrastructure. By comparing North Korean facilities with known sites in other nuclear-armed states, ...

High-Explosives Testing in Nuclear Weapons Programmes

This paper examines how high-explosives support implosion-type nuclear weapons and why their testing matters. Building on ONN and VERTIC's open-source work on DPRK nuclear capabilities, it offers a practical baseline for analysing high-explosives testing programmes and signatures in the DPRK and oth...

Understanding North Korean Uranium Enrichment

This ONN co-authored piece with VERTIC offers detailed analysis of the DPRK’s uranium enrichment programme based on previous project research and photographs shown by DPRK state media in 2024 and 2025. The paper includes revised estimates for the scope and potential enriched uranium output of the DP...

Modeling Plutonium Production in the Experimental Light Water Reactor of North Korea

New analysis assesses how North Korea’s Experimental Light Water Reactor could support plutonium production, combining reactor-core modelling with satellite imagery. It identifies operational indicators and realistic production ranges, offering the international community tools to monitor the North ...

DPRK Nuclear Futures Workshop

In February 2024, VERTIC, ONN, and CNS held a two-day workshop to assess the future of the DPRK’s nuclear programme. The event examined scenarios for weapons-usable nuclear material production, delivery systems and verification options in potential agreements. Using expert elicitation and forecastin...

Fissile Material and Nuclear Force Structure in North Korea

ONN Senior Analyst Sarah Laderman, Research Assistant Nikita Degtyarev, Analyst Tianran Xu, Research Assistant Elin Bergner and Research and Analysis Manager Marcy R Fowler authored a report "Fissile Material and Nuclear Force Structure in North Korea" for The Royal United Services Institute for Def...

DPRK Nuclear Weapons Development - Literature Review

There exists no recent comprehensive literature review related to the DPRK’s nuclear weapons development capabilities and associated strategy. This paper seeks to fill this gap by compiling and summarising all major published analyses released since 2017.

Using the 600 mm multiple rocket launcher round as reference, the face length of both Kim Jong Un and Hong Sung Mu have been measured for later use

Size Estimates of DPRK's Nuclear Devices

The DPRK nuclear warheads showcased before 2023 have a maximum diameter of around 600 mm and were likely intended to be delivered by ballistic missiles. The Hwasan-31 nuclear warhead, newly revealed in late March 2023, has a reduced diameter of around 460 mm, suggesting advances in miniaturization. ...

ONN Completes Multi-year VERTIC-led Project on Open-Source Assessments of the DPRK’s Nuclear Programme

Last month, ONN completed its analytical contributions to the Open-Source Assessments of the DPRK’s Nuclear Programme project led by VERTIC in partnership with CNS and RUSI and funded by Global Affairs Canada. The project, running since 2019, culminated on 26 March 2026 with a launch event held in Vienna to present high-level findings on the DPRK’s nuclear fuel cycle and weaponisation capabilities to subject matter experts and Vienna-based diplomats.

March 30,2026

VERTIC and ONN Present Multi-Year Project Findings on the DPRK’s Nuclear Programme

On 26 March 2026, a project launch event was held in Vienna to present high-level findings on the DPRK’s nuclear fuel cycle and weaponisation capabilities to subject matter experts and diplomats.

March 28,2026

ONN, VERTIC and APLN host two-day workshop in Seoul

ONN and the Verification Research, Training and Information Centre (VERTIC), in partnership with the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network (APLN), hosted at a two-day workshop on Open-Source Assessments of the DPRK’s Nuclear Programme in Seoul on 17-18 November 2025.

November 24,2025