Publications and Analyses

Nuclearization of the KPAN: Expansion of the DPRK's Sea-Based Nuclear Capabilities

The conversion of an old submarine into an underwater nuclear weapon launch platform likely represents a relatively fast and economical way to establish a sea-based nuclear deterrence.

September 21, 2023

Nuclear Risk Assessment Report - August 2023

In an attempt to more comprehensively assess nuclear risks on and around the Korean Peninsula, this monthly Report examines the DPRK’s and the ROK’s nuclear and military spheres, as well as activities and policy decisions across main domestic and foreign policy spheres that could impact nuclear risks.

September 12, 2023

Nuclear Risk Assessment Report - July 2023

In an attempt to more comprehensively assess nuclear risks on and around the Korean Peninsula, the Report examines the DPRK’s and the ROK’s nuclear and military spheres, as well as activities and policy decisions across main domestic and foreign policy spheres that could impact nuclear risks.

August 10, 2023

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Jeffrey Glenn Lewis

June 03, 2020

South Korea's Hyunmoo-4 and Increasing Missile Capabilities across Northeast Asia

While North Korea gets most of the attention when it comes to the subject of missile proliferation on the Korean Peninsula, South Korea too has a substantial missile program. The public received a rare glimpse into South Korea’s missile programs in May, when South Korean news outlets reported on a t...

Clayton Besaw

May 22, 2020

Unpacking Russian Presidential Speech Patterns with Machine Learning

Natural language processing and topic modeling specifically have proliferated in accessibility over the past decade. Topic modeling algorithms such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) are now considered a type of "work-horse" tool for uncovering patterns (topics) in large sets of text data.

Melissa Hanham

Jaewoo Shin

May 21, 2020

Ethics in the Age of OSINT Innocence

Increased availability and lower cost of satellite imagery has made it accessible to civil society in recent years. While universities, think tanks, and nongovernmental organizations are racing ahead to incorporate this form of open source intelligence (OSINT) into their regular research work, there...

Jeffrey Glenn Lewis

May 14, 2020

Monitoring Iran's Solid Rocket Program from Space

On April 22, Iran placed a small satellite in orbit. The space launch was notable for two reasons. First, the launch was conducted by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC), not Iran's civilian space program. Second, the rocket used a new solid-propellant second stage (the Salman), which th...

Laura Rockwood

Veronika Bedenko

May 01, 2020

Nuclear Risk Reduction and COVID-19: What One Existential Threat Can Teach Us about Another

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, competing international security priorities including arms control, nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, are taking a back seat. The delayed response to COVID-19 suggests some troubling analogies to the current state of affairs in the nuclear arena.

Threat similarities between nuclear weapons and COVID-19

Tianran Xu

Jaewoo Shin

April 23, 2020

A Tale of Two Missiles: Analysis of KCNA Reports on DPRK's KN-23 and KN-24 Short-Range Ballistic Missiles

Since May 2019, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has repeatedly tested two new solid-fuel short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM). Unlike liquid SRBMs such as the SCUD-B/C, the KN-23 and KN-24 missile systems have different designs, means of transportation, and launch methods. However,...

Tianran Xu

March 23, 2020

Analysis of the KN-25 Multiple Rocket Launcher System after the 9 March 2020 DPRK Test

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea launched at least two "super-large calibre" multiple rocket launcher rounds into the Sea of Japan or East Sea on 9 March 2020. It is the sixth confirmed test launch of the system, with a total of at least 12 such rockets having been launched since it was dev...

Melissa Hanham

November 15, 2019

Image Analysis of North Korea's ICBMs for Countermeasures

While there is insufficient evidence to prove that North Korea is pursuing countermeasures or penetration aids (penaids), the lack of evidence certainly does not prove that they are not.

Melissa Hanham

November 15, 2019

North Korea's Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles & Countermeasures

Every state that has developed intercontinental ballistic missiles has considered how to deliver a nuclear payload to its target without interference.

Melissa Hanham

November 15, 2019

Countering Ballistic Missile Defence: North Korea's Approach

North Korea's rapid development of missile capabilities has prioritized technological advancement, range, and payload delivery in order to achieve Kim Jong Un’s goal of delivering a nuclear weapon to the US mainland.

Stanley Center for Peace and Security

Open Nuclear Network

July 01, 2019

The Gray Spectrum

Ethical Decision Making with Geospatial and Open Source Analysis

In July 2019, the Stanley Center for Peace and Security and Open Nuclear Network convened a workshop with nonproliferation experts, open source intelligence analysts, journalists and stakeholders from satellite imagery firms. The workshop asked participants to explore ethical challenges with their w...

Exhaust plume from a North Korean short-range ballistic missile test