This report maps the pathways that could increase the risk of U.S.-China nuclear escalation by 2030. It finds that nuclear conflict remains unlikely, but that forward U.S. nuclear deployments in the Indo-Pacific are the clearest structural amplifier of risk. Taiwan-related contingencies produce the sharpest escalation pressures, while developments on the Korean Peninsula and in the South China Sea create additional pathways to instability. The report argues for stronger crisis management, deconfliction, and restraint to reduce the danger of escalation in an increasingly volatile Indo-Pacific security environment.
