Publications and Analyses

Nuclearization of the KPAN: Expansion of the DPRK's Sea-Based Nuclear Capabilities

The conversion of an old submarine into an underwater nuclear weapon launch platform likely represents a relatively fast and economical way to establish a sea-based nuclear deterrence.

September 21, 2023

Nuclear Risk Assessment Report - August 2023

In an attempt to more comprehensively assess nuclear risks on and around the Korean Peninsula, this monthly Report examines the DPRK’s and the ROK’s nuclear and military spheres, as well as activities and policy decisions across main domestic and foreign policy spheres that could impact nuclear risks.

September 12, 2023

Nuclear Risk Assessment Report - July 2023

In an attempt to more comprehensively assess nuclear risks on and around the Korean Peninsula, the Report examines the DPRK’s and the ROK’s nuclear and military spheres, as well as activities and policy decisions across main domestic and foreign policy spheres that could impact nuclear risks.

August 10, 2023

Search Publications and Analyses

Filter Content

Showing 96 items for Publications and Analyses

Katsuhisa Furukawa

January 08, 2021

Japan in Pursuit of a "New Course" for Its Missile Defence Strategy

On 18 December 2020, the Japanese Cabinet decided on a new policy to upgrade its missile defence systems to cope with the evolving missile threats in the surrounding region. Meanwhile, speculations have been brewing with regard to whether Japan might abandon its traditional policy of exclusive self-...

Matthew Frank

December 16, 2020

Let's Talk Turkey: Debating the Deployment of US Nuclear Weapons in Turkey

The early morning of May 27, 1960 marked a major turning point in Turkish civil-military relations, as well as the country's history in general. Around 3 a.m., two relatively small groups of junior officers, one in Istanbul and one in Ankara began taking over key government offices and communication...

Matthew Frank

November 20, 2020

An Open Question: the Future of the Open Skies Treaty after American Withdrawal

On 22 May 2020, the United States formally submitted notice that it would withdraw from the Open Skies Treaty, beginning a six-month countdown that will finally end on 22 November 2020 with the US exiting the agreement.

Open Nuclear Network

November 06, 2020

ONN's Nuclear Risk Reduction Approach for the Korean Peninsula

There are six parties involved in conflict around the Korean Peninsula: China, DPRK, Japan, ROK, Russia and the USA. Each party has different perspectives on the history and geopolitical situation in the region, and each party has a role to play in the escalation or de-escalation of conflict. The DP...

Clayton Besaw

October 30, 2020

It's Time to Talk about American Election Violence

Election violence has grown globally; the potential for election violence in the United States needs to be acknowledged

Bangladesh's election was just 19 days away when Mohammad Hanif, a local leader of the incumbent Awami League, was killed. Eyewitness accounts painted a grim picture. Hanif was killed by a mob wielding sticks and bladed weapons that supported the rival Bangladesh National Party. By merely attending ...

Veronika Bedenko

Clayton Besaw

Jaewoo Shin

October 27, 2020

Analysis of Kim Jong Un's Speech on the 75th Anniversary of the Workers' Party of Korea

Following the 2020 parade to mark the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea where DPRK Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un delivered his congratulatory address to the nation, ONN performed a detailed analysis of his speech. Using qualitative and quantitative methods of text and sent...

David Joel La Boon

October 20, 2020

For Good Measure

Measurement is a numbers game. Not just in the values, but also in the process. What do I mean by this? The more measurements that we make, the more confident we can be about our results. The better our known quantities are, the more confident that we can be about our results. And it is in having co...

Melissa Hanham

Matthew Frank

Tianran Xu

Katsuhisa Furukawa

October 16, 2020

North Korea's New ICBM and Transport Truck

On 10 October 2020, the DPRK celebrated the 75th anniversary of the founding of its WPK, the ruling party of the DPRK. The DPRK typically holds a military parade every five years. Thus, the most recent parade should not be perceived as an indicator of increased risk or conflict.

Open Nuclear Network

October 13, 2020

Viewbook of DPRK 10 October 2020 Parade

This is a viewbook prepared following the DPRK's military parade held on 10 October 2020 in celebration of the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea.

Open Nuclear Network

October 09, 2020

Viewbook of DPRK Missiles

This is a viewbook prepared in anticipation of a military parade likely to be held on or around 10 October 2020 by the DPRK in celebration of the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Workers’ Party of Korea.

Jee Abbey Lee

September 17, 2020

[Engagement Network Series - 2 of 2] South Korea's Chief Nuke Negotiator on How Nuclear Talks with the DPRK Could Resume

ROK chief negotiator at the Six Party Talks, Amb. Chun Yung-woo, has joined the ONN Engagement Network. In this two part series, he sits down with Jee Lee to discuss approaches to engage North Korea and reminisces about what he has learned in previous negotiations.

Jee Abbey Lee

September 09, 2020

[Engagement Network Series - 1 of 2] South Korea's Chief Nuke Negotiator on Decoding Pyongyang

Clayton Besaw

August 07, 2020

Nuclear (e)motives: The KCNA's English Language Output and Sentiment Patterns Regarding the Topic of Nuclear Weapons

Breaking down North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) output in English, we find a clear bifurcation in the pattern of language used when it comes to the discussion of texts related to the topic of nuclear weapons.

Matthew Frank

July 27, 2020

Electoral Victory Forecasting: a Structural Model for Global Election Predictions

The field of election forecasting has become immensely popular in recent years, becoming so ubiquitous that some studies have argued election forecasts themselves can influence voters' perceptions and behavior in elections. While there is some criticism that election forecasting can contribute to a...

Ankit Panda

July 07, 2020

Why the "Old Normal" Along the Sino-Indian Border Can No Longer Stand

China's fait accompli in Eastern Ladakh has disintegrated more than two decades of bilateral mechanisms and understandings

By the time 20 Indian soldiers had died and a still-unknown number of Chinese soldiers faced casualties after a high-altitude melee in the normally obscure Galwan Valley on June 15, India and China were already well into a border crisis. The events of June 15 simply had the effect of sharply raising...

Tianran Xu

June 30, 2020

Pyongyang's Bomb Is Not As Advanced As You May Think, But It Can Get Scarier

This article tries to give a general idea of the technological level of North Korean nuclear weapon’s miniaturization in a bid to better understand the nuclear threat North Korea poses to the region and the globe. Through examining limited open-source materials the author tries to establish a rough ...

Jee Abbey Lee

June 25, 2020

Explainer: Why "Leafleting" to North Korea Ruffles Feathers

Throughout the month of June, North Korea has shown increased hostility toward South Korea. Some of these efforts include re-installing loudspeakers along the Demilitarised Zone at one point before removing them, blowing up a joint liaison office in its territory and announcing plans for a massive a...