Publications and Analyses

The latest publications and analyses from Open Nuclear Network

U.S.-China Nuclear Escalation Risk

This ONN assessment maps the pathways that could drive U.S.-China nuclear escalation by 2030, finding that forward U.S. nuclear deployments in the Indo-Pacific are the most significant amplifier of risk.

March 17, 2026

High-Explosives Testing in Nuclear Weapons Programmes

This paper examines how high-explosives support implosion-type nuclear weapons and why their testing matters. Building on ONN and VERTIC's open-source work on DPRK nuclear capabilities, it offers a practical baseline for analysing high-explosives testing programmes and signatures in the DPRK and other states.

March 12, 2026

DPRK Nuclear Futures Workshop

In February 2024, VERTIC, ONN, and CNS held a two-day workshop to assess the future of the DPRK’s nuclear programme. The event examined scenarios for weapons-usable nuclear material production, delivery systems and verification options in potential agreements. Using expert elicitation and forecasting, it provided key insights into the DPRK’s evolving capabilities.

January 07, 2025

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Showing 113 items for Publications and Analyses

Tianran Xu

February 01, 2022

January 2022: Missile Tests of the DPRK

Except for the fourth nuclear test in 2016, January has traditionally been a calm month in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). However, a total of seven missile tests made January 2022 the busiest calendar month in the country's history of missile testing. The launch of a Hwasong-12 in...

Tianran Xu

January 14, 2022

Analysis of the 11 January 2022 Hypersonic Missile Test of the DPRK

State media of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) reported on 12 January 2022 that the Academy of Defence Science had tested a hypersonic missile on 11 January 2022. This is the first missile launch in which DPRK leader Kim Jong Un has been officially confirmed as having been present s...

Katsuhisa Furukawa

January 14, 2022

The 4th Plenary Meeting of 8th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea

The 4th Plenary Meeting of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) was held in Pyongyang from 27 to 31 December 2021. This paper provides a description of the Central Committee and its mandate, key takeaways from the meeting and concluding observations.

Tianran Xu

January 07, 2022

ONN Brief: Analysis on the 5 January 2022 Hypersonic Missile Test of the DPRK

State media of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) reported on 6 January 2022 that the Academy of Defence Science had tested a hypersonic missile on 5 January 2022. This is an initial analysis based on available information.

Tianran Xu

January 05, 2022

Constraints and Outlook: Future Deployment of DPRK Ballistic Missile Submarines

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has been developing nuclear-capable submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and ballistic missile submarines. While numerous articles about the test launch activities and the ballistic missile submarines exist, there appears to be a lack of disc...

Katsuhisa Furukawa

December 03, 2021

Construction Activities Near Chamjin Missile Factory and Suspected Uranium Enrichment Site in Kangson

In 2020 and 2021, new construction work was observed in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) near the Chamjin missile factory and the site of the suspected uranium enrichment facility in Kangson. The Chamjin missile factory is one of the key factories of the DPRK's defence sector and has...

Tianran Xu

November 26, 2021

Institutions Relevant to Ballistic Missile Development in Myanmar

This report focuses on institutions in Myanmar that might potentially be capable of developing components subject to the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) or the Hague Code of Conduct.

Tianran Xu

October 20, 2021

Brief on the 19 October 2021 Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile Test of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea

On 20 October 2021, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) reported that the DPRK's Defence Science Institute had conducted a test of a new submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) on 19 October. This is a preliminary brief on the test launch.

Tianran Xu

October 18, 2021

Brief on the Defence Development Exhibition of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea

On 11 October 2021, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) held a defence development exhibition entitled "Self-Defence-2021" in Pyongyang to celebrate the 76th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK). In the exhibition, a wide variety of weapons was displayed, r...

Tianran Xu

October 12, 2021

Update on Preliminary Analysis of 30 September 2021 Anti-Aircraft Missile Test of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea

On 1 October 2021, ONN published a preliminary analysis of the DPRK’s 30 September 2021 anti-aircraft missile test.

Open Nuclear Network

October 01, 2021

Preliminary Analysis of 30 September 2021 Anti-Aircraft Missile Test of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea

On 1 October 2021, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) reported that the Academy of Defence Science tested a newly developed anti-aircraft missile. The test, which took place on 30 September, also marked the fourth missile test of the DPRK within...

Tianran Xu

September 30, 2021

Observations on the 28 September 2021 Hypersonic Missile Test of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea

The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) reported that, in the morning of 28 September 2021, the Academy of Defence Science tested a hypersonic missile referred to as a Hwasong-8. Below are initial observations based on information released by KCNA.

Tianran Xu

Jaewoo Shin

Katsuhisa Furukawa

September 17, 2021

The First DPRK Missile Launch from a Railmobile Launcher

Official media of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) reported on 16 September 2021 that a newly established "railway-borne missile regiment" launched two ballistic missiles from a rail-mobile launcher on 15 September 2021. This is the first time the DPRK has revealed this ballistic mis...

Tianran Xu

September 14, 2021

Briefing on Recent DPRK Missile Launches 11-12 September 2021

Briefing on the test launches of the new type long-range cruise missile on 11 and 12 September 2021 September 2021 in the DPRK.

Tianran Xu

Katsuhisa Furukawa

Veronika Bedenko

Jaewoo Shin

September 13, 2021

Assessment of the Impact of August 2021 Rainfall and Flooding in the DPRK

Analysis of the damage caused by heavy rainfall and flooding in August 2021 in the DPRK.

Tianran Xu

September 08, 2021

Ballistic Missile and Rocket Institutions in Taiwan, China

This report is the first in a series of reports on ballistic missile/space launch vehicle development in the Republic of Korea, Japan and Taiwan, China, with a focus on institutions that are capable of producing components that could be subject to the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) or the ...

Jaewoo Shin

Veronika Bedenko

Laura Rockwood

August 30, 2021

Applicability Of The JCPOA Experience To The Korean Peninsula Crisis Resolution

This paper explores what lessons can be drawn from the process and framework of the negotiations on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that might be applicable to crisis resolution on the Korean Peninsula. Particular focus is put on aspects related to conflict mediation and trust-buildin...

Katsuhisa Furukawa

August 17, 2021

Food Insecurity in the DPRK in 2021

The report analyses information available in the open source domain about the DPRK's food insecurity.