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Olamide Samuel
Kseniia Pirnavskaia
Valeriia Hesse
April 16, 2026

The Geography of Nuclear Restraint in a Fragmenting Order

Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zones in an Unstable Security Environment
As arms control erodes, nuclear-weapon-free zones are becoming among the last durable frameworks for collective nuclear restraint. This ONN report finds that NWFZs strengthen regional confidence, safeguards, and nuclear governance, yet remain unevenly supported, constrained by capacity gaps, weak co...
Karim Kamel
Junyang Hu
Michael Story
March 17, 2026

US-China Nuclear Escalation Risk

Mapping Pathways and Strategic Priorities Through 2030
This ONN assessment maps the pathways that could drive U.S.-China nuclear escalation by 2030, finding that forward U.S. nuclear deployments in the Indo-Pacific are the most significant amplifier of risk.
Sarah Laderman
Nikita Degtyarev
Elin Bergner
Marcy R. Fowler
January 07, 2025

DPRK Nuclear Futures Workshop

In February 2024, VERTIC, ONN, and CNS held a two-day workshop to assess the future of the DPRK’s nuclear programme. The event examined scenarios for weapons-usable nuclear material production, delivery systems and verification options in potential agreements. Using expert elicitation and forecastin...
Elin Bergner
Sarah Laderman
Marcy R. Fowler
November 28, 2024

The Nexus of Non-Traditional Security and Nuclear Risk

Implications for EU Foreign Policy in the Indo-Pacific
The updated European Union (EU) Indo–Pacific Strategy highlights the growing strategic importance of the region for the EU’s foreign policy goals, incorporating both traditional security matters and non-traditional security (NTS) concerns. However, the strategy falls short by siloing policy implemen...
November 27, 2024

ONN together with VERTIC visit CTBTO

Open Nuclear Network and Verification Research, Training and Information Centre (VERTIC) had the pleasure of meeting with Robert Floyd to discuss recent work and current developments.
Bridget Williams, Ezra Karger, Andreas Persbo, Kseniia Pirnavskaia, Karim Kamel, Victoria Schmidt, Otto Kuusela, Zach Jacobs, Philip E. Tetlock
October 29, 2024

Can Humanity Achieve a Century of Nuclear Peace?

Expert Forecasts of Nuclear Risk
While the world has avoided large-scale nuclear war, questions remain about the role of chance versus policy choices in preventing such events. This study systematically assesses expert beliefs about the probability of a nuclear catastrophe by 2045, the centenary of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nag...