Publications and Analyses

The latest publications and analyses from Open Nuclear Network

Can Humanity Achieve a Century of Nuclear Peace?

While the world has avoided large-scale nuclear war, questions remain about the role of chance versus policy choices in preventing such events. This study systematically assesses expert beliefs about the probability of a nuclear catastrophe by 2045, the centenary of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

October 29, 2024

Fissile Material and Nuclear Force Structure in North Korea

ONN Senior Analyst Sarah Laderman, Research Assistant Nikita Degtyarev, Analyst Tianran Xu, Research Assistant Elin Bergner and Research and Analysis Manager Marcy R Fowler authored a report "Fissile Material and Nuclear Force Structure in North Korea" for The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI), providing an in-depth analysis of North Korea's approach to its nuclear force structure.

October 01, 2024

DPRK Nuclear Weapons Development - Literature Review

There exists no recent comprehensive literature review related to the DPRK’s nuclear weapons development capabilities and associated strategy. This paper seeks to fill this gap by compiling and summarising all major published analyses released since 2017.

August 13, 2024

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Open Nuclear Network
May 13, 2022

Factors Related to Past DPRK Nuclear Tests

In light of recent analyses about a possible next nuclear weapon test by the DPRK, ONN has compiled data related to each of the six previous nuclear weapon tests of the DPRK, specifically the timing of the previous tests, nuclear test site preparations, launch vehicle development, environmental fact...
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Tianran Xu
May 03, 2022

Overview of the DPRK's 25 April 2022 Military Parade

The 25 April 2022 military parade of the DPRK again demonstrated the will of the DPRK to execute its 2021-2025 weapon development plan. Kim Jong Un's parade speech also signaled that the DPRK's nuclear strategy is gradually shifting from strategic deterrence to battlefield use.
Image from the parade showed on the KCTV
Open Nuclear Network
April 21, 2022

DPRK Military Parade Viewbook 2022

This viewbook has been prepared in anticipation of a forthcoming DPRK military parade, which will likely be held either in celebration of the 110th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il-sung or the 90th founding anniversary of the Korean People's Army. While the main focus of this viewbook is on the D...
DPRK's Hwasong 17 missile
Katsuhisa Furukawa
March 28, 2022

Developments at the DPRK's Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site since December 2021

Since December 2021, new developments have been observed at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), showing that the DPRK has reactivated, or is in the process of reactivating, some parts of this nuclear weapon test site. This includes probable restorati...
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Tianran Xu
March 25, 2022

24 March 2022 DPRK ICBM Test

On 24 March 2022, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) conducted an apparent full-range test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). This was the first such test since November 2017 and marked the end of the DPRK's ICBM and nuclear test moratorium.
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Tianran Xu
March 14, 2022

Strong Indicators of DPRK's Next Satellite/ICBM Launch

A series of events in late February and early March 2022 indicate that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has been actively preparing for its next satellite or intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch.
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Jaewoo Shin
March 10, 2022

South Korea's New President-Elect Yoon Suk-yeol

The conservative People Power Party's candidate Yoon Suk-yeol narrowly won South Korea's presidential election on 9 March 2022 with a final voting count of 48.56% of the electorate. His main opponent, Democratic Party's Lee Jae-myung, received 47.83% of the votes. Lee conceded defeat in the early mo...
Yoon Suk-yeol
Tianran Xu
February 01, 2022

January 2022: Missile Tests of the DPRK

Except for the fourth nuclear test in 2016, January has traditionally been a calm month in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). However, a total of seven missile tests made January 2022 the busiest calendar month in the country's history of missile testing. The launch of a Hwasong-12 in...
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Tianran Xu
January 14, 2022

Analysis of the 11 January 2022 Hypersonic Missile Test of the DPRK

State media of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) reported on 12 January 2022 that the Academy of Defence Science had tested a hypersonic missile on 11 January 2022. This is the first missile launch in which DPRK leader Kim Jong Un has been officially confirmed as having been present s...
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