Publications and Analyses

The latest publications and analyses from Open Nuclear Network

Can Humanity Achieve a Century of Nuclear Peace?

While the world has avoided large-scale nuclear war, questions remain about the role of chance versus policy choices in preventing such events. This study systematically assesses expert beliefs about the probability of a nuclear catastrophe by 2045, the centenary of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

October 29, 2024

Fissile Material and Nuclear Force Structure in North Korea

ONN Senior Analyst Sarah Laderman, Research Assistant Nikita Degtyarev, Analyst Tianran Xu, Research Assistant Elin Bergner and Research and Analysis Manager Marcy R Fowler authored a report "Fissile Material and Nuclear Force Structure in North Korea" for The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI), providing an in-depth analysis of North Korea's approach to its nuclear force structure.

October 01, 2024

DPRK Nuclear Weapons Development - Literature Review

There exists no recent comprehensive literature review related to the DPRK’s nuclear weapons development capabilities and associated strategy. This paper seeks to fill this gap by compiling and summarising all major published analyses released since 2017.

August 13, 2024

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Showing 108 items for Publications and Analyses
Tianran Xu
April 14, 2023

The DPRK's First Solid-Propellant ICBM Launch

Strategic Delivery Vehicle Development Series
On 13 April 2023, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) conducted its first flight test of a solid-propellant intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the Hwasong-18.
Hwasong 18
Tianran Xu
February 23, 2023

Brief on the DPRK's 8 February 2023 Parade

Strategic Delivery Vehicle Developments Series
In comparison to previous military parades, the parade on 8 February 2023 put a strong focus on the intercontinental-range nuclear strike force: the parade only displayed a few conventional and short-range nuclear-capable weapon systems, but showcased an unprecedented number of 12 Hwasong-17 ICBMs.
DPRK parade 2023
Tianran Xu
February 13, 2023

Update on the DPRK's 600 mm Multiple Launch Rocket System

Strategic Delivery Vehicle Developments Series
The Democratic People's Republic of Korea acknowledged in 2020 that there were issues related to the production of the 600 mm calibre multiple launch rocket system (MLRS). The delivery of thirty such MLRS in December 2022 suggests that these problems have been resolved.
KN-25
Marcy Fowler
Sarah Laderman
Valeriia Hesse
January 19, 2023

ONN Expert Roundup: Northeast Asia Consequences of Nuclear Escalation in Ukraine

The use of a nuclear weapon anywhere in the world would have far-reaching consequences, with effects extending well beyond the immediate area of impact. ONN has previously noted that any further escalation in Ukraine could potentially expand into an increase in military activity or force re-alignmen...
Unnamed Image Map
Tianran Xu
December 16, 2022

DPRK Unveils Its Solid-Propellant ICBM Motor

The DPRK claimed to have tested the country’s first large and high-thrust solid-propellant motor on 15 December 2022 at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground. Judging from the stated thrust of 140 tons of force (tf) and purpose, the motor will likely serve as the first stage of a solid-propellant bal...
Cover images for ONN website
Veronika Bedenko
Valeriia Hesse
Jaewoo Shin
December 12, 2022

Learning from the JCPOA Experience: Restarting Dialogue Aimed at Crisis Resolution

This paper explores lessons to be learned from the process and framework of the negotiations under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with regard to conflict mediation and trust-building, especially during the early stages of negotiation. The findings are based on an analysis of numerous...
JCPOA paper
Tianran Xu
Katsuhisa Furukawa
Elin Bergner
Kristiana Nitisa
November 11, 2022

Escalating Tensions on the Korean Peninsula

Late September to early November 2022
Since late September, the Korean Peninsula has witnessed a new round of escalation of tensions. Coinciding with multiple joint and individual military exercises of the USA, ROK and Japan, the DPRK launched at least 30 ballistic missiles from 25 September to 14 November 2022 and fired artillery shell...
DPRK soldier
Marcy Fowler
Elin Bergner
Kristiana Nitisa
November 10, 2022

Combating Nuclear Misinformation and Disinformation

Tools, Approaches and the Role of NGOs and International Organizations
The paper was submitted for the IAEA's Symposium on International Safeguards: Reflecting on the Past and Anticipating the Future.
Cover image-newspapers
Elin Bergner
August 18, 2022

DPRK's Declared COVID-19 Victory and Implications for a Next Nuclear Test

On 10 August 2022, Kim Jong Un declared "victory" over the COVID-19 epidemic at the "National meeting of reviewing the emergency anti-epidemic work", while Kim Yo Jong reiterated previous North Korean claims that the virus had entered the country from South Korea and threatened to wipe out the South...
ONN Logo
Tianran Xu
July 25, 2022

Emerging Capabilities? The Unflown SLBMs of the DPRK

In its October 2020, January 2021 and April 2022 military parades, the DPRK displayed three types of large submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs): the Pukguksong-4ㅅ, the Pukguksong-5ㅅand an unnamed SLBM, respectively. To date, none of these SLBMs have been flight tested and their developmenta...
ONN Logo
Tianran Xu
June 17, 2022

Backgrounder: Previous DPRK Nuclear Tests

The DPRK has conducted six nuclear tests, each of which took place within months of long-range rocket or satellite launches. In anticipation of a possible seventh nuclear test, information on the first six tests has been compiled in this backrounder.
Kim Jong Un and the bomb
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