Publications and Analyses

The latest publications and analyses from Open Nuclear Network

Can Humanity Achieve a Century of Nuclear Peace?

While the world has avoided large-scale nuclear war, questions remain about the role of chance versus policy choices in preventing such events. This study systematically assesses expert beliefs about the probability of a nuclear catastrophe by 2045, the centenary of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

October 29, 2024

Fissile Material and Nuclear Force Structure in North Korea

ONN Senior Analyst Sarah Laderman, Research Assistant Nikita Degtyarev, Analyst Tianran Xu, Research Assistant Elin Bergner and Research and Analysis Manager Marcy R Fowler authored a report "Fissile Material and Nuclear Force Structure in North Korea" for The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI), providing an in-depth analysis of North Korea's approach to its nuclear force structure.

October 01, 2024

DPRK Nuclear Weapons Development - Literature Review

There exists no recent comprehensive literature review related to the DPRK’s nuclear weapons development capabilities and associated strategy. This paper seeks to fill this gap by compiling and summarising all major published analyses released since 2017.

August 13, 2024

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Showing 108 items for Publications and Analyses

Katsuhisa Furukawa

December 03, 2021

Construction Activities Near Chamjin Missile Factory and Suspected Uranium Enrichment Site in Kangson

In 2020 and 2021, new construction work was observed in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) near the Chamjin missile factory and the site of the suspected uranium enrichment facility in Kangson. The Chamjin missile factory is one of the key factories of the DPRK's defence sector and has...

Tianran Xu

November 26, 2021

Institutions Relevant to Ballistic Missile Development in Myanmar

This report focuses on institutions in Myanmar that might potentially be capable of developing components subject to the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) or the Hague Code of Conduct.

Tianran Xu

October 20, 2021

Brief on the 19 October 2021 Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile Test of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea

On 20 October 2021, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) reported that the DPRK's Defence Science Institute had conducted a test of a new submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) on 19 October. This is a preliminary brief on the test launch.

Tianran Xu

October 18, 2021

Brief on the Defence Development Exhibition of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea

On 11 October 2021, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) held a defence development exhibition entitled "Self-Defence-2021" in Pyongyang to celebrate the 76th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK). In the exhibition, a wide variety of weapons was displayed, r...

Tianran Xu

October 12, 2021

Update on Preliminary Analysis of 30 September 2021 Anti-Aircraft Missile Test of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea

On 1 October 2021, ONN published a preliminary analysis of the DPRK’s 30 September 2021 anti-aircraft missile test.

Open Nuclear Network

October 01, 2021

Preliminary Analysis of 30 September 2021 Anti-Aircraft Missile Test of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea

On 1 October 2021, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) reported that the Academy of Defence Science tested a newly developed anti-aircraft missile. The test, which took place on 30 September, also marked the fourth missile test of the DPRK within...

Tianran Xu

September 30, 2021

Observations on the 28 September 2021 Hypersonic Missile Test of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea

The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) reported that, in the morning of 28 September 2021, the Academy of Defence Science tested a hypersonic missile referred to as a Hwasong-8. Below are initial observations based on information released by KCNA.

Tianran Xu

Jaewoo Shin

Katsuhisa Furukawa

September 17, 2021

The First DPRK Missile Launch from a Railmobile Launcher

Official media of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) reported on 16 September 2021 that a newly established "railway-borne missile regiment" launched two ballistic missiles from a rail-mobile launcher on 15 September 2021. This is the first time the DPRK has revealed this ballistic mis...

Tianran Xu

September 14, 2021

Briefing on Recent DPRK Missile Launches 11-12 September 2021

Briefing on the test launches of the new type long-range cruise missile on 11 and 12 September 2021 September 2021 in the DPRK.

Tianran Xu

Katsuhisa Furukawa

Veronika Bedenko

Jaewoo Shin

September 13, 2021

Assessment of the Impact of August 2021 Rainfall and Flooding in the DPRK

Analysis of the damage caused by heavy rainfall and flooding in August 2021 in the DPRK.

Tianran Xu

September 08, 2021

Ballistic Missile and Rocket Institutions in Taiwan, China

This report is the first in a series of reports on ballistic missile/space launch vehicle development in the Republic of Korea, Japan and Taiwan, China, with a focus on institutions that are capable of producing components that could be subject to the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) or the ...

Jaewoo Shin

Veronika Bedenko

Laura Rockwood

August 30, 2021

Applicability Of The JCPOA Experience To The Korean Peninsula Crisis Resolution

This paper explores what lessons can be drawn from the process and framework of the negotiations on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that might be applicable to crisis resolution on the Korean Peninsula. Particular focus is put on aspects related to conflict mediation and trust-buildin...

Katsuhisa Furukawa

August 17, 2021

Food Insecurity in the DPRK in 2021

The report analyses information available in the open source domain about the DPRK's food insecurity.

Veronika Bedenko

July 27, 2021

ONN Monitoring Report: Activities Continue at the Abandoned 50 MWe Reactor at Yongbyon

In the monitoring report on the 50 MWe Reactor at Yongbyon from 9 July 2021, ONN noted that the roof of one of the buildings adjacent to the main reactor hall had been removed

Matthew Frank

July 26, 2021

Continued Construction Activities at Yusang-ni Missile Base

The Yusang-ni Missile Base is one of the largest and most recently completed North Korean missile bases and reportedly hosts a number of ballistic missile systems. Recent imagery from June 2021 indicates that some relatively minor construction continues at the facility, with a number of old building...

Tianran Xu

July 26, 2021

New Constructions at the Chamjin Missile Factory

The Chamjin Missile Factory, also known as the Thaesong Machine Plant, is an important facility for ballistic missile production in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).

Tianran Xu

July 14, 2021

New Construction at the Tonghae Satellite Launching Ground

This report is a work product for the Korean Peninsula monitoring project, which aims to provide situation awareness about the Korean Peninsula. This particular report is about changes ONN detected from satellite images at North Korea's Tonghae Satellite Launching Ground.

Veronika Bedenko

July 09, 2021

ONN Monitoring Report: New Activity at Abandoned 50 MWe Reactor at Yongbyon

Analysis of satellite imagery from June 2021 revealed new activity at the abandoned 50 MWe reactor at Yongbyon, Democratic People's Republic of Korea.