Publications and Analyses

The latest publications and analyses from Open Nuclear Network

Can Humanity Achieve a Century of Nuclear Peace?

While the world has avoided large-scale nuclear war, questions remain about the role of chance versus policy choices in preventing such events. This study systematically assesses expert beliefs about the probability of a nuclear catastrophe by 2045, the centenary of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

October 29, 2024

Fissile Material and Nuclear Force Structure in North Korea

ONN Senior Analyst Sarah Laderman, Research Assistant Nikita Degtyarev, Analyst Tianran Xu, Research Assistant Elin Bergner and Research and Analysis Manager Marcy R Fowler authored a report "Fissile Material and Nuclear Force Structure in North Korea" for The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI), providing an in-depth analysis of North Korea's approach to its nuclear force structure.

October 01, 2024

DPRK Nuclear Weapons Development - Literature Review

There exists no recent comprehensive literature review related to the DPRK’s nuclear weapons development capabilities and associated strategy. This paper seeks to fill this gap by compiling and summarising all major published analyses released since 2017.

August 13, 2024

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Tianran Xu

June 26, 2021

Termination of the Revised ROK Missile Guidelines: Assessment of China's and DPRK's Reactions

During the State visit of the President of the Republic of Korea (ROK) Moon Jae-in to Washington, D.C. in May 2021, the United States agreed to terminate the 1979 Missile Guidelines.

Tianran Xu

April 16, 2021

Ballistic Missile Submarines and Submarine-launched Ballistic Missiles of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea

This factsheet offers a brief introduction to the ballistic missile submarines of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the associated submarine-launched ballistic missiles.

Jaewoo Shin

Veronika Bedenko

Clayton Besaw

Tianran Xu

April 03, 2021

ONN Korean Peninsula Risk Assessment, March 2021

Even though the "North Korea policy review" by the new Biden administration has reportedly yet to be concluded, the month of March 2021 marked the first significant public articulation of positions and signalling by the United States (US) and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) vis-à-vi...

Katsuhisa Furukawa

April 02, 2021

Japan's Stand-Off Weapon Programmes: New Counterforce Strike Capabilities?

Since 2018, Japan has advanced its stand-off weapons programmes. It is currently planning to introduce the Norway-sourced Joint Strike Missile and undertaking research and development and/or deployment of at least six types of indigenous stand-off weapons.

Tianran Xu

Melissa Hanham

February 15, 2021

Essay: The Next 50 Years of Missile Proliferation

ONN analysts Tianran Xu and Melissa Hanham co-authored a chapter for the new volume from George Washington University on The Next 50 Years of Nuclear Proliferation. The chapter titled The Next 50 Years of Missile Proliferation tries to illustrate the future trends of missile proliferation by examini...

Katsuhisa Furukawa

February 09, 2021

The 8th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea (1)

The 8th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea was held in Pyongyang from 5 to 12 January 2021.

Jaewoo Shin

February 09, 2021

The 8th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea (2)

The 8th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea was held in Pyongyang from 5 to 12 January 2021.

Tianran Xu

January 18, 2021

Highlights of the DPRK Military Parade on 14 January 2021

A military parade was held in Pyongyang in the late hours of Thursday, 14 January 2021, to celebrate the conclusion of the 8th Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK). The parade was basically a scaled down version of the 10 October 2020 parade in celebration of the 75th anniversary of the fou...

Katsuhisa Furukawa

January 08, 2021

Japan in Pursuit of a "New Course" for Its Missile Defence Strategy

On 18 December 2020, the Japanese Cabinet decided on a new policy to upgrade its missile defence systems to cope with the evolving missile threats in the surrounding region. Meanwhile, speculations have been brewing with regard to whether Japan might abandon its traditional policy of exclusive self-...

Matthew Frank

December 16, 2020

Let's Talk Turkey: Debating the Deployment of US Nuclear Weapons in Turkey

The early morning of May 27, 1960 marked a major turning point in Turkish civil-military relations, as well as the country's history in general. Around 3 a.m., two relatively small groups of junior officers, one in Istanbul and one in Ankara began taking over key government offices and communication...

Matthew Frank

November 20, 2020

An Open Question: the Future of the Open Skies Treaty after American Withdrawal

On 22 May 2020, the United States formally submitted notice that it would withdraw from the Open Skies Treaty, beginning a six-month countdown that will finally end on 22 November 2020 with the US exiting the agreement.

Open Nuclear Network

November 06, 2020

ONN's Nuclear Risk Reduction Approach for the Korean Peninsula

There are six parties involved in conflict around the Korean Peninsula: China, DPRK, Japan, ROK, Russia and the USA. Each party has different perspectives on the history and geopolitical situation in the region, and each party has a role to play in the escalation or de-escalation of conflict. The DP...

Clayton Besaw

October 30, 2020

It's Time to Talk about American Election Violence

Election violence has grown globally; the potential for election violence in the United States needs to be acknowledged

Bangladesh's election was just 19 days away when Mohammad Hanif, a local leader of the incumbent Awami League, was killed. Eyewitness accounts painted a grim picture. Hanif was killed by a mob wielding sticks and bladed weapons that supported the rival Bangladesh National Party. By merely attending ...

Veronika Bedenko

Clayton Besaw

Jaewoo Shin

October 27, 2020

Analysis of Kim Jong Un's Speech on the 75th Anniversary of the Workers' Party of Korea

Following the 2020 parade to mark the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea where DPRK Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un delivered his congratulatory address to the nation, ONN performed a detailed analysis of his speech. Using qualitative and quantitative methods of text and sent...

David Joel La Boon

October 20, 2020

For Good Measure

Measurement is a numbers game. Not just in the values, but also in the process. What do I mean by this? The more measurements that we make, the more confident we can be about our results. The better our known quantities are, the more confident that we can be about our results. And it is in having co...

Melissa Hanham

Matthew Frank

Tianran Xu

Katsuhisa Furukawa

October 16, 2020

North Korea's New ICBM and Transport Truck

On 10 October 2020, the DPRK celebrated the 75th anniversary of the founding of its WPK, the ruling party of the DPRK. The DPRK typically holds a military parade every five years. Thus, the most recent parade should not be perceived as an indicator of increased risk or conflict.

Open Nuclear Network

October 13, 2020

Viewbook of DPRK 10 October 2020 Parade

This is a viewbook prepared following the DPRK's military parade held on 10 October 2020 in celebration of the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea.

Open Nuclear Network

October 09, 2020

Viewbook of DPRK Missiles

This is a viewbook prepared in anticipation of a military parade likely to be held on or around 10 October 2020 by the DPRK in celebration of the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Workers’ Party of Korea.