The war involving Iran and the United States has significantly affected the regional security landscape, raising new questions about the future of diplomacy over Iran's nuclear programme. Beyond the immediate challenges of managing regional tensions, the prospects for a future nuclear agreement remain uncertain, with important implications for nuclear risk reduction, international verification and Iran's continued participation in the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
ONN has followed these developments through Project Loop, including a forecasting question examining whether Iran would agree to restrict uranium enrichment for at least six months by 3 November 2026.
Building on this work, ONN's recent Special Monitoring Report, "The Iran War: Stakeholder Positions and Prospects for a Future Nuclear Agreement", examines the interests and negotiating positions of key regional and international stakeholders. The report finds that a comprehensive nuclear agreement remains unlikely by the end of 2026, while a more limited arrangement focused on nuclear verification, maritime security and immediate risk reduction appears more plausible.
The webinar will explore whether the negotiating positions of the United States and Iran could converge, what political and technical obstacles remain, and which concrete steps could help turn a potential Zone of Possible Agreement into a future nuclear agreement.
The discussion will also examine potential deal-breakers, regional spoilers and unexpected developments that could undermine diplomatic progress, highlighting how monitoring and structured forecasting can help identify emerging risks and inform nuclear risk reduction efforts.
Speakers:
- Benjamin Ashraf, Assistant Analyst and Coordinator, Open Nuclear Network (ONN)
- Dr Ariane M. Tabatabai, Vice President of Research, Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Karim Kamel, Foresight and Prediction Specialist, Open Nuclear Network (ONN)
Moderator: Kseniia Pirnavskaia, Network and Engagement Specialist, Open Nuclear Network (ONN).
