Franco-German cooperation on nuclear deterrence has recently moved from political dialogue towards more concrete strategic and operational cooperation. ONN has followed these developments through the Project Loop. In its previous forecasting cycle, ONN examined whether the Franco-German Nuclear Steering Group would produce a communiqué, work plan or equivalent output containing at least one operationally specific deliverable by 30 September 2026. The question was designed to explore whether the emerging Franco-German dialogue would remain largely political or begin to translate into more concrete forms of cooperation.
Our Forecast for this question put the probability at 53% - roughly an even chance. The question has since resolved yes, following the 17 July announcement that the Nuclear Steering Group would examine the relationship between nuclear deterrence, conventional capabilities, Deep Precision Strike and missile defence, alongside concrete operational steps including the visit of a French Strategic Air Forces Rafale to Nörvenich and planned German conventional participation in a French nuclear exercise.
Against this background, the webinar will examine what Franco-German nuclear cooperation actually entails, what it does not, and what these developments could mean for the future of European deterrence.
Speakers:
- Héloïse Fayet, Research Fellow and Head of the Deterrence and Proliferation Program, Security Studies Center, French Institute of International Relations (IFRI)/ONN Expert Roster
- Jacob Ross, Research Fellow, Program on Franco-German Relations, German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Linus Höller, Assistant Analyst, Open Nuclear Network (ONN)
Moderator: Kseniia Pirnavskaia, Network and Engagement Specialist, Open Nuclear Network (ONN)
