ONN at VeSPoTec Science-Peace-Security Conference 2025

Sarah's presentation covered an upcoming paper which argues that the irreversibility of nuclear disarmament is best understood in relation to nuclear latency, or the residual capabilities that enable rearmament. By framing irreversibility as the long-term management of risks arising from latency, it highlights the challenges of observing both capabilities and intentions, the tendency of states to overestimate risks and the need for holistic indicators. Drawing on safeguards, technology studies and organizational factors, a number of latency indicators and ways to observe those indicators were created to serve as a practical foundation for managing rearmament risks during and after disarmament.

Jaewoo and Grant’s presentation demonstrated how emerging satellite capabilities can be applied to monitor a complex and evolving nuclear programs such as that of the DPRK. Jaewoo highlighted new observations from 2023–2025, incorporating novel data sources and techniques that have yielded new insights into the programme. This effort is part of our ongoing research project on the DPRK's nuclear programme, conducted under contract with VERTIC, and funded by Global Affairs Canada.