Tianran Xu for The Wall Street Journal: China's Nuclear Submarine Missile Test

ONN Senior Analyst Tianran Xu recently contributed to The Wall Street Journal article examining China's test-launch of a long-range ballistic missile from a nuclear-powered submarine.

China’s intercontinental-range submarine-launched ballistic missile test on 6 July 2026 likely involved a JL-2 or JL-3 SLBM. It appears to be China’s first publicly acknowledged long-range SLBM flight into the Pacific, and only the third time that China has fired an intercontinental-range ballistic missile deep into the Pacific, following the DF-5 ICBM flight test in 1980 and the DF-31A ICBM launch in 2024. 

Commenting on the significance of the launch, Xu noted that the 2024 and July 2026 launches may mark the emergence of a new pattern, in which more frequent strategic weapon tests are used to strengthen China’s strategic deterrence capabilities and send broader political and military signals.