The analysis assesses that the facility is consistent with the suspected new enrichment site at Yongbyon. Using imagery analysis, facility measurements and enrichment modelling, the analysis reconstructs the facility’s likely layout and estimates its potential contribution to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s production of weapons-grade highly enriched uranium (HEU). The facility appears to contain 28 cascades across two floors, comprising approximately 9,184 centrifuges. If fully operational, this facility could add an indicative annual production capacity of around 160 kg of weapons-grade HEU. This would bring the overall assessment of the DPRK’s annual HEU production capacity to approximately 375 kg per year.
The findings point to a substantial expansion of North Korea’s uranium enrichment capacity and highlight the continued importance of open-source analysis for assessing developments in the DPRK nuclear programme. They also underscore the significance of Yongbyon’s continuing role in North Korea’s nuclear infrastructure.
The analysis was also covered by The Wall Street Journal, which highlighted the potential scale of the capacity increase and its implications for North Korea’s expanding nuclear arsenal.
