Ashraf noted that the United States continues to pursue what he described as “maximalist demands”, including restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities without corresponding sanctions relief. At the same time, Iranian officials have signalled that the country’s nuclear and missile capabilities remain non-negotiable. As a result, he argued that no substantive nuclear agreement is currently on the table.
A central theme of the discussion was the distinction between diplomacy and coercion. While the United States presents its approach as a non-proliferation effort, Ashraf argued that current policy appears aimed not only at verifying Iran’s nuclear activities but also at shaping Iran’s long-term strategic capabilities through sustained pressure. He suggested that this approach has so far failed to generate meaningful concessions from Tehran.
The interview also examined the role of Israel in shaping US policy toward Iran. While acknowledging close US-Israeli coordination, Ashraf argued that Washington’s approach is best understood as converging with Israeli objectives rather than being wholly driven by them.
Reflecting on the broader implications for nuclear risk reduction, Ashraf suggested that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) now appears more valuable in retrospect. Despite its shortcomings, the agreement imposed verifiable constraints on Iran’s nuclear programme and provided a degree of transparency and predictability that is largely absent today. In contrast, he warned that the current environment is characterised by fewer safeguards, reduced transparency, and weaker mechanisms for managing escalation risks. Finally, Ashraf also discussed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, arguing that Iran currently holds significant leverage due to its ability to disrupt maritime traffic through a critical global energy chokepoint. While noting that some of Tehran’s recent measures raise legal concerns under international maritime law, he suggested that the ongoing disruption highlights the difficulty of maintaining maritime order and commercial stability amid escalating regional tensions.
