The international nuclear non-proliferation regime is under growing pressure from geopolitical rivalry, renewed reliance on deterrence, and deepening divisions between states. In a new article published in the Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament, ONN Director Andreas Persbo and ONN Network and Engagement Specialist Kseniia Pirnavskaia examine how the NPT-based system is evolving, highlighting the core imbalance between strong, enforceable non-proliferation obligations and far more ambiguous disarmament commitments. They argue that the regime must adapt to a more fragmented and contested world through a stronger, more human-centred approach, with better verification, clearer compliance mechanisms, and greater coherence between the NPT and TPNW to support long-term nuclear risk reduction.
Abstract:
Frustration over the lack of progress in nuclear disarmament under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) led to the creation of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). On the other hand, there is criticism that the TPNW has fostered confrontation and division between nuclear weapons states and non-nuclear weapons states. In order to achieve nuclear abolition, it is necessary to ensure non-proliferation. The emergence of the TPNW, which does not have its own safeguards regime, has called into question the nature of the international nuclear non-proliferation regime based on the NPT. This paper discusses the nature of the international non-proliferation regime based on the NPT in the present and near future, keeping in mind the existence of TPNW.
