The goal of Open Nuclear Network (ONN) is to reduce the risks associated with nuclear weapons and prevent predictable nuclear catastrophes. Leveraging open-source data, forecasting and foresight, and strategic engagement, ONN supports informed decision-making with independent, actionable information to reduce nuclear risks. ONN currently focuses on the Euro-Atlantic and Trans-Pacific regions, with the aim of expanding its efforts globally.
ONN works to reduce nuclear risk through a structured, four-step process:
- Monitors early indicators of nuclear risks;
- Forecasts and anticipates emerging nuclear threats;
- Analyses information to produce actionable insights;
- Engages to foster collaboration and collective action to address nuclear risks.
Nuclear Risk Reduction
Adversarial States involved in "nuclear flashpoint" contexts, i.e. conflicts in which nuclear-armed States are involved, are at risk of runaway escalation that could lead to the use of nuclear weapons, especially where there is a history of mutual distrust. This lack of trust is exacerbated by asymmetric information about capabilities and intentions due to:
- the lack of shareable, timely and reliable information not produced by an intelligence community of one of the parties to the conflict;
- the absence of informed, credible and neutral outside engagement prior to or during a crisis;
- a deficit in positive engagement among adversaries; and
- the latent risk of military escalation, compounded by internal miscalculation or an externally-generated false positive.
As conflict escalates, the problems associated with distrust and limited communications are compounded by the need for decision-makers to make difficult choices within ever shorter time periods.
The security of all States can be increased by ensuring that decision-makers in countries engaged in such conflicts have access to high quality, shareable open source information that enables them to make the best decisions in the face of conflicts.
ONN as a Solution
ONN offers a mechanism for reducing the risk that nuclear weapons are used in the course of conflict escalation: a transparently non-aligned, data-driven, civilian programme committed to building relationships and sharing information across national and alliance boundaries.
Using a wide range of curated data, ONN analysts produce fact-based analyses in connection with targeted conflict contexts and identify opportunities for constructive engagement. These analyses are delivered to decision-makers in relevant countries either directly or through ONN’s strategic network, including the ONN Advisory Council. The Advisory Council is a a senior board of advisors that advises and works with ONN to prevent and intervene in nuclear conflict situations. This trusted and credible network is composed of former high-level military and foreign policy officials and other experts who command utmost respect in their respective fields of expertise. They have knowledge, experience and access to decision makers and their associates.
Ultimately, the aim is to give decision-makers access to independently generated and unclassified information, which can be used as a common basis for dialogue and conflict de-escalation, thereby reducing the risks associates with nuclear weapons.
During the initial stage of operation, ONN focused on the Korean Peninsula. Currently, ONN focuses on the Euro-Atlantic and Trans-Pacific regions, with the aim of expanding its efforts globally.
Why Vienna?
Given the mission of ONN, it was decided to establish ONN in Vienna, Austria, the home of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) headquarters, the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-BanTreaty (CTBT), the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs in Vienna (UNODA) and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), as well as of diplomatic missions whose focus is on nuclear non-proliferation, disarmament and conflict resolution.
How is ONN Funded?
ONN is a PAX sapiens (PAX) programme, a private non-profit foundation funded by Canadian entrepreneurial philanthropists Marcel Arsenault and Cynda Collins Arsenault. PAX's mission is to prevent predictable global catastrophes through the creation of new systems of collective coordination that promise a more peaceful world. Its mission is to catalyse coordination and collective action across the philanthropic, private and public sectors.
PAX works through two parallel strategic tracks: grantmaking and operating work. PAX works to mitigate systemic security risks, strengthen global cooperation systems and solve common problems preventing the resolution of predictable risks. PAX’ work currently focuses on three specific preventable catastrophic risks. These are preventing global pandemics, preventing armed conflicts between the US and China and preventing the use of nuclear weapons. PAX operates with a long-term perspective, an empirical approach and through [P^3] partnerships that bring non-state actors to the table alongside governments to collectively solve problems. PAX also acts as the host to the Our Secure Future programme, advancing its Women, Peace, and Security agenda that cuts across all core issue areas.