- Inter-Korean
In response to five DPRK drones' incursion into ROK airspace on 26 December 2022, the ROK sent reconnaissance assets into the DPRK on the same day. Following the incident, ROK President Yoon Suk Yeol said the ROK "must punish and retaliate against any provocation by North Korea" and ordered his aides to "consider suspending" the 2018 Comprehensive Military Agreement in case of another DPRK violation of ROK territory. On 26 January, the UN Command Military Armistice Commission concluded that both the DPRK and the ROK had violated the Armistice.Significance: The first-ever inter-Korean exchange of drones builds on the considerable military escalation between the two Koreas in the fall of 2022 and is consistent with their policies of taking corresponding measures to the other's military actions, indicating an increased risk of inter-Korean conflict.
- DPRK
On 20 January, the White House repeated its assessment that the DPRK is exporting "arms and ammunition" to the Russian Wagner Group. It shared two satellite images from November 2022 that it claimed showed Russian railcars prior to entering the DPRK and returning the following day with unspecified "material." It is unclear how the United States learned the cargo contained military supplies and was en route to Wagner; although NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg made similar claims during his visit to the ROK on 30 January, no independent analysis has confirmed these assessments.On 27 January, Kim Yo Jong, a senior DPRK official and Kim Jong Un's sister, criticized the announced US deliveries of Abrams tanks to Ukraine while stating that the DPRK "will always stand in the same trench with the service personnel and people of Russia."
Significance: The DPRK's reported export of arms to Russia and a senior DPRK official's public endorsement of Russia are consistent with the DPRK's pivot to Moscow since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Additionally, if the US assessment on the Wagner Group is accurate, such a partnership would constitute a new potential source of income for the DPRK and pose a significant challenge on the continued enforcement of the embargo on arms and related materiel, pursuant to UNSC Resolution 1718.
- ROK
On 11 January, President Yoon Suk Yeol stated that "if the [North Korea] problem further deteriorates, tactical nuclear weapons could be redeployed to the ROK or the ROK could itself acquire nuclear weapons," becoming the first ROK president to officially mention a nuclear option since the US withdrawal of nuclear weapons from the ROK in 1991. He added that it is "always important to choose realistically possible means" and that the ROK is now focused on strengthening ballistic missile capabilities that fall under its "Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation" programme and cooperation with the United States on extended deterrence measures. He later dialled back his comments in an interview with the Wall Street Journal.Significance: Redeployment of US nuclear weapons, introducing NATO-like joint nuclear sharing and exercise arrangements or even an independent nuclear weapons program would have profound political, economic, and military implications for the ROK and significantly change the regional military balance.
Main Developments in January 2023
Korean Peninsula