As one of the most secretive nuclear states, North Korea offers little insight into its nuclear fuel cycle, which has significant implications for global security. To address this knowledge gap, the paper builds on research by the Verification Research, Training and Information Centre (VERTIC), providing an analytical framework to assess North Korea’s nuclear strategy and arsenal structure.
North Korea’s nuclear arsenal aims to deter both distant nuclear powers like the US and nearby non-nuclear adversaries such as South Korea, US Forces Korea and Japan. To meet these objectives, North Korea appears to be developing both a strategic and more versatile arsenal. Based on the analysis of force-structure requirements to achieve credible deterrence, it is assessed that North Korea might aim to develop 25–35 strategic thermonuclear warheads and 80–200 short- and medium-range single-stage warheads
Given its fissile-material inventory, the analysis suggests that North Korea may have developed 21 to 23 thermonuclear warheads and 51 to 165 single-stage nuclear warheads, focusing on both strategic and tactical/battlefield use. Although North Korea is still likely constrained by its plutonium supply, evidence suggests that its nuclear material production goals may have been met or are nearing sufficiency. Consequently, North Korea may choose to work within its existing fissile-material resources, deeming its arsenal adequate. Alternatively, it might ramp up production to exceed current needs, maintain a surplus stockpile or continue enhancing its arsenal’s capabilities to align with the availability of its fissile material.
While the future trajectory of North Korea’s nuclear strategy remains uncertain, this nuanced study highlights the potential trade-offs North Korea faces in optimising its arsenal under fissile-material constraints, offering key insights for international diplomacy and future engagement on denuclearisation efforts.
