The Open Nuclear Network (ONN) and the Forecasting Research Institute (FRI), co-sponsored by the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA) and Austria, are organizing a hybrid event to present the final report of their comprehensive study on forecasting nuclear catastrophes. This study seeks to understand the spectrum of expert opinions on the risk of nuclear catastrophes over the coming decades, focusing on the likelihood of such events, key risk pathways, and the impact of various policy strategies. This initiative aims to both quantitatively and qualitatively capture the views of the nuclear policy community, pinpointing key areas of contention that can be empirically assessed.
The event will explore the practical applicability of forecasting methodologies within the nuclear policy field, discussing the potential for these tools to predict nuclear conflicts and evaluate the effectiveness of different policies. The presentation will include findings from surveys conducted with 110 nuclear experts and 41 superforecasters, highlighting the effectiveness of various policies in reducing or exacerbating the risks of nuclear catastrophe over the coming decade, and policy implications relevant for decision-makers and the nuclear policy expert community.
Before presenting the survey findings, we will engage both in-person and online participants in a forecasting exercise. Participants will be asked to predict some of the survey results and to also make their own forecasts on several key survey questions. We will then present the study findings, followed by a discussion of the live polling results and expert predictions, including those from superforecasters. During the Q&A session, the moderator will invite participants who accurately predicted the study results to share their reflections on their prediction process.
This event builds on the initial gathering held during the 2024 NPT PrepCom in Geneva, where our interim report findings sparked critical conversations within the nuclear policy community on forecasting methods and their role in understanding and reducing nuclear risks.
Speakers:
- Josh Rosenberg, CEO, Forecasting Research Institute (confirmed)
- Bridget Williams, Research Manager, Forecasting Research Institute (confirmed)
- Karim Kamel, Foresight & Prediction Specialist, Open Nuclear Network (confirmed)
- Chris King, Chief, Weapons of Mass Destruction Branch, United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs (confirmed)
- George-Wilhelm Gallhofer, Austrian Ministry for Foreign Affairs (confirmed)
Moderator: Kristiana Nitisa, Engagement and Research Assistant, Open Nuclear Network (confirmed)
- When: 30 October 2024, Wednesday, 13:15-14:30 EDT, followed by reception
- Where: UN General Assembly First Committee on Disarmament and International Security, New York, Conference Room #6 and online
- Please RSVP by 10 October if a UN pass is required, or by 28 October if UN pass is NOT needed.
