The Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) and Open Nuclear Network (ONN), in association with the University of Pennsylvania, are conducting a comprehensive study aimed at understanding the spectrum of expert opinions on the risk of nuclear catastrophes in the upcoming decades.
This includes collecting views on the overall likelihood of such a catastrophe, the most likely risk pathways and factors influencing risk, and the potential impact of various policy choices. This initiative seeks to both quantitatively and qualitatively capture the views within the nuclear policy community and to pinpoint key areas of contention that can be empirically assessed.
The study consists of a pair of surveys. Survey one focuses on escalation pathways and survey two focuses on possible interventions. The surveys ask participants about their views on which events are most likely to lead to nuclear weapons use. They are also asked to assign a probability to various events that may lead to nuclear use—a forecast. No special experience or skills were required to create these forecasts; experts needed only to represent their own views. All forecasts are entirely confidential, and participants were given the possibility to support their numerical forecasts with an explanation regarding their reasoning.
To date, we surveyed 110 nuclear experts and 41 superforecasters and are ready to share some findings.
Event
To present the interim findings and open it up for a broader discussion, ONN and FRI are organizing a side event “A Gamble of Our Own Choosing: Forecasting Nuclear Risks” at the upcoming 2024 NPT PrepCom in Geneva, Switzerland.
- When: 25 July 2024, Thursday, 15:30 – 17:00, followed by a reception
- Where: Room XXIII, Palais des Nations, Geneva, Switzerland
This side event will showcase our interim findings and explore the forecasting methodologies we employed. We will discuss how these forecasting methods can serve as crucial tools in understanding and potentially mitigating the risks of a nuclear catastrophe. The session will aim to bridge the gap between theoretical forecasts and practical policy implications, engaging participants in discussions on incorporating these insights into global nuclear strategies effectively.
Presenters
- Josh Rosenberg, CEO, FRI
- Bridget Williams, Research Manager, FRI
Discussants
- Andrey Baklitskiy, Senior Researcher, UNIDIR
- Jamie Kwon, Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Cláudio Medeiros Leopoldino, Counsellor, Representation of Brazil to the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva
Moderated by: Veronika Bedenko, Senior Analyst, ONN
