Publications and Analyses
DPRK Nuclear Futures Workshop
In February 2024, VERTIC, ONN, and CNS held a two-day workshop to assess the future of the DPRK’s nuclear programme. The event examined scenarios for weapons-usable nuclear material production, delivery systems and verification options in potential agreements. Using expert elicitation and forecasting, it provided key insights into the DPRK’s evolving capabilities.
The Nexus of Non-Traditional Security and Nuclear Risk
The updated European Union (EU) Indo–Pacific Strategy highlights the growing strategic importance of the region for the EU’s foreign policy goals, incorporating both traditional security matters and non-traditional security (NTS) concerns. However, the strategy falls short by siloing policy implementation and not addressing the significant nuclear escalation risks among the region’s nuclear-armed states, which could have severe global consequences, including for Europe.
Can Humanity Achieve a Century of Nuclear Peace?
While the world has avoided large-scale nuclear war, questions remain about the role of chance versus policy choices in preventing such events. This study systematically assesses expert beliefs about the probability of a nuclear catastrophe by 2045, the centenary of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
