Last week, Open Nuclear Network (ONN) hosted the ONN Disinformation Risk Workshop, contributing to the GP WMD Counter Disinformation Initiative. The workshop brought together a diverse group of participants to explore the societal, political and strategic impacts of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) disinformation—particularly its role in the context of Ukraine. Over the course of three days, participants used foresight and prediction techniques to develop forward-looking escalation scenairos and identify key disinformation triggers that could lead to conflict escalation.
To set the stage, the workshop opened with an excursion to Vienna’s Museum of Military History (WWI Exhibition). This visit offered historical context on escalation patterns, the role of propaganda and how conflicts can spiral—while also illustrating how timely interventions can help prevent them. It also served as an excellent icebreaker, sparking creative thinking and connection among participants.
The second day began with a session on understanding forecasts and prediction under uncertainty, followed by a team-based analysis of CBRN disinformation trends. Participants mapped and categorised disinformation narratives, then competed in a structured forecasting tournament, refining their predictions on potential escalation scenarios. In the afternoon, the group tackled disinformation-driven escalation triggers, considering how misleading narratives can act as catalysts for broader geopolitical crises. The day concluded with a lively reception at ONN’s office, where participants exchanged insights and built valuable connections.
The final day focused on deepening the analysis. Participants engaged in a red teaming exercise, stress-testing key escalation triggers against real-world vulnerabilities. This was followed by conditional forecasting, using probabilistic tools to assess the likelihood of escalation under different scenarios. The workshop wrapped up with a session on mitigation strategies and risk monitoring approaches.
ONN is deeply grateful to our partner, the Confido Institute, for co-leading the forecasting components, and to all participants for their expertise, energy and collaboration.
