From 22 July to 2 August, Open Nuclear Network (ONN) participated in the Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) for the 2026 Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in Geneva, Switzerland. This was the second of three sessions leading up to the 2026 Review Conference.
During the two-week event, ONN focused on two key activities:
Side Event: "A Gamble of Our Own Choosing: Forecasting Nuclear Risks"
On 25 July, ONN, in collaboration with the Forecasting Research Institute (FRI), co-hosted a side event titled "A Gamble of Our Own Choosing: Forecasting Nuclear Risks" on the sidelines of the PrepCom.
The discussion of nuclear risks has become increasingly prominent in the NPT fora. However, accurately quantifying these risks remains a challenge for the nuclear community. The basic risk equation, expressed as Risk = Probability x Consequence, underscores the necessity of discussing probabilities because, while the catastrophic consequences of nuclear weapon use are well understood, the actual probability of such events occurring remains uncertain. Accurately assessing risk requires a clearer understanding of these probabilities to make informed decisions and develop effective strategies for mitigating potential nuclear threats. To address this gap, ONN partnered with FRI, leveraging their expertise in probability forecasting from other fields to explore its application in nuclear policy.
The side event featured a presentation and discussions on the interim findings and forecasting methodology used in ONN and FRI's joint research project. This project assesses risk factors that could lead to catastrophic nuclear weapons use. The event emphasised the importance of integrating forecasting methodologies into nuclear policy discussions and brought together experts and policymakers to explore their potential. Key takeaways included the consensus that forecasting, when combined with qualitative analysis and scenario planning, is invaluable for understanding nuclear risks. Participants also highlighted the need for more dynamic risk assessment methods, better communication of findings to decision-makers, and a greater focus on near-term events to enhance the credibility of these methodologies. The event successfully facilitated meaningful discussions on incorporating forecasting insights into global nuclear strategies, bridging the gap between theoretical forecasts and practical policy implications.
The interim report can be accessed [here].
More details about the project are available [here].
ONN and FRI are currently analysing data from the second survey of the project and plan to present their findings at a follow-up event in the autumn. Stay tuned for further updates.
Statement on behalf of the GP Countering WMD Disinformation Initiative
On 24 July, during the main plenary session’s civil society statements, ONN addressed NPT Member States on behalf of the Global Partnership (GP) Countering WMD Disinformation Initiative. The statement highlighted the critical threat that nuclear and radiological disinformation poses to global security and the integrity of the NPT regime.
ONN Research Assistant Elin Bergner delivers the statement at the 2024 NPT PrepCom
This initiative, funded by Global Affairs Canada and implemented by the Atlantic Council Digital Forensic Research Lab, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, King’s College London and Open Nuclear Network, was endorsed by the G7-led Global Partnership and the G7 Rapid Response Mechanism, and the statement was endorsed by the Global Partnership Countering WMD Disinformation Steering Committee. The statement underscored the detrimental impact of disinformation on the NPT's three pillars: disarmament, non-proliferation and the peaceful uses of nuclear technology. The Initiative aims to build a robust evidence base to identify, understand and mitigate the impact of disinformation, ensuring the continued security of the global nuclear framework.
You can listen to the full statement [here].
Learn more about the initiative [here].
