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Bridget Williams, Ezra Karger, Andreas Persbo, Kseniia Pirnavskaia, Karim Kamel, Victoria Schmidt, Otto Kuusela, Zach Jacobs, Philip E. Tetlock
Octubre 29, 2024

Can Humanity Achieve a Century of Nuclear Peace?

Expert Forecasts of Nuclear Risk
While the world has avoided large-scale nuclear war, questions remain about the role of chance versus policy choices in preventing such events. This study systematically assesses expert beliefs about the probability of a nuclear catastrophe by 2045, the centenary of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nag...
Cover of ONN-FRI report
Sarah Laderman
Elin Bergner
Marcy R. Fowler
Agosto 13, 2024

DPRK Nuclear Weapons Development - Literature Review

There exists no recent comprehensive literature review related to the DPRK’s nuclear weapons development capabilities and associated strategy. This paper seeks to fill this gap by compiling and summarising all major published analyses released since 2017.
DPRK Nuclear Weapons Development - Literature Review
Agosto 12, 2024

ONN Attends the 2024 NPT Preparatory Committee

From 22 July to 2 August, Open Nuclear Network (ONN) participated in the Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) for the 2026 Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in Geneva, Switzerland. This was the second of three sessions leading up to the 2026 Review Conferen...
ONN at PrepCom 2024
Julio 15, 2024

FRI-ONN Project: Forecasting Nuclear Catastrophe

The Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) and Open Nuclear Network (ONN), in association with the University of Pennsylvania, are conducting a comprehensive study aimed at understanding the spectrum of expert opinions on the risk of nuclear catastrophes in the upcoming decades.
ONN-FRI Joint Project
Junio 20, 2024

Open Nuclear Network Joins PAX sapiens

We are pleased to announce that starting in June 2024, Open Nuclear Network (ONN) will join the PAX sapiens (PAX) foundation, which is part of the Marcel Arsenault and Cynda Collins Arsenault family of foundations.
PAX logo
Febrero 05, 2024

Event Horizon News Digest

Methodology and Scope Note
Event Horizon is a news digest focusing on monitoring emerging risks before they become visible crises. It examines developing stories with significant implications for global stability, stories that may breach critical thresholds beyond which escalation may become irreversible.
Event Horizon logo
Jaewoo Shin
Tianran Xu
Elin Bergner
Enero 04, 2024

Nuclear Risk Assessment Report - December 2023

Nuclear risk can emanate from various factors. These range from the more obvious military developments and incidents that could lead to increased tensions and possibly even nuclear misuse, to the often overlooked domestic and external contexts in which a country perceives its circumstances and, base...
December Report
Noviembre 09, 2023

Nuclear Risk Assessment Report - October 2023

Nuclear risk can emanate from various factors. These range from the more obvious military developments and incidents that could lead to increased tensions and possibly even nuclear misuse, to the often overlooked domestic and external contexts in which a country perceives its circumstances and, base...
October Report
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