Publications and Analyses
U.S.-China Nuclear Escalation Risk
This ONN assessment maps the pathways that could drive U.S.-China nuclear escalation by 2030, finding that forward U.S. nuclear deployments in the Indo-Pacific are the most significant amplifier of risk.
High-Explosives Testing in Nuclear Weapons Programmes
This paper examines how high-explosives support implosion-type nuclear weapons and why their testing matters. Building on ONN and VERTIC's open-source work on DPRK nuclear capabilities, it offers a practical baseline for analysing high-explosives testing programmes and signatures in the DPRK and other states.
DPRK Nuclear Futures Workshop
In February 2024, VERTIC, ONN, and CNS held a two-day workshop to assess the future of the DPRK’s nuclear programme. The event examined scenarios for weapons-usable nuclear material production, delivery systems and verification options in potential agreements. Using expert elicitation and forecasting, it provided key insights into the DPRK’s evolving capabilities.